The $285 Million Shift: Size Is No Longer a Shield The average credit union that merged in 2025 had $285 million in assets. In 2018, that number was $36 million. That is roughly an eight-fold increase in the average size of a merging credit union in just seven years. I pulled thirty quarters of NCUA merger data and that trend is one of the most striking things in the dataset. For years, credit union leaders assumed that reaching a certain size offered protection—that scale was a buffer...

"Involuntary" doesn't mean what you think it means. Every year, roughly 20% of credit union mergers are categorized as involuntary. Most people assume that means NCUA forced the merger. It doesn't. In nearly all cases, the credit union itself checked the "involuntary" box because it was experiencing distress—poor financial condition, governance gaps, management challenges, or loss of sponsor. Of the 265 involuntary mergers in my dataset: → 141 were tied to financial conditions → 74 to...

The Charter Conversion Pendulum Has Swung Since 2021, $41 billion in credit union assets has moved from state charters to the federal charter. That is a significant reversal. From 2018 to 2020, $24 billion moved in the other direction—from federal to state. Something shifted. In 2025 alone, eleven credit unions converted from state to federal charters, with nineteen billion dollars in assets making that move. During the same year, only four went the other direction. Charter conversion...