Where Will the Industry Be in 25 Years?

At current pace, there could be fewer than 2,000 credit union charters by 2050. That's not a prediction—it's math.

There are currently 4,316 credit union charters. If consolidation continues at the historical rate of three to four percent per year, here is where the industry ends up:

At three percent annual attrition: roughly 2,015 charters by 2050.

At four percent annual attrition: roughly 1,555 charters by 2050.

When I started at NCUA in 1986, there were close to 14,000 charters. Consolidation is not a new story. But the pace and the profile of what is merging has changed.

The most active acquirer in my dataset completed 24 mergers over four years—roughly one every six weeks. One hundred and four credit unions completed three or more mergers during the study period. Some are volume players absorbing many smaller institutions. Others are scale players doing fewer, larger deals. A third group is mission-driven, specifically targeting credit unions in financial distress.

New charters won't change this trajectory.

For leaders of surviving institutions, the projection is not a prediction—it is a planning input.

If your credit union is still standing in 2050, what will you have done differently starting now?